Federal Election Updates
Liberals Clinch Fourth Term: Mark Carney Leads Canada into New Era After 2025 Federal Election Shake-Up
April 29: Canada’s 2025 federal election has culminated in a remarkable political shift, with the Liberal Party, under the leadership of Mark Carney, securing a fourth consecutive term in office. Despite earlier projections favoring the Conservatives, Carney’s Liberals achieved a significant victory, though they fell just short of an outright majority.
Election Results Overview
Liberal Party: Projected to win 167 seats, five seats shy of the 172 needed for a majority in the 343-seat House of Commons.
Conservative Party: Secured 133 seats, with leader Pierre Poilievre losing his long-held Carleton seat.
Bloc Québécois: Won 21 seats, a decrease from their previous standing.
New Democratic Party (NDP): Reduced to 5 seats, with leader Jagmeet Singh losing his Burnaby Central seat and announcing his resignation.
Green Party: Maintained 1 seat, with co-leader Jonathan Pedneault defeated in Outremont.
The Liberals also secured the popular vote with 43.5%, marking a reversal from previous elections where the Conservatives had led in vote share.
Factors Influencing the Outcome
Several key factors contributed to the Liberals’ unexpected resurgence:
U.S. Relations: President Donald Trump’s aggressive policies, including proposed tariffs and annexation rhetoric, sparked a wave of Canadian nationalism, bolstering support for the Liberals.
Leadership Change: Mark Carney’s recent ascension to Liberal leadership brought a fresh perspective, emphasizing economic stability and national unity.
Conservative Challenges: Pierre Poilievre’s alignment with Trump-style populism may have alienated moderate voters, contributing to the Conservatives’ underperformance.
Looking Ahead
With a minority government, the Liberals will need to collaborate with other parties to pass legislation. Carney has expressed a commitment to working across party lines to address pressing issues such as housing affordability, healthcare, and economic resilience.
The new cabinet is expected to be announced in the coming days, setting the stage for the 45th Canadian Parliament.
Liberals Maintain Edge Heading Into Election Day
April 27: As Canadians prepare to head to the polls, the latest numbers suggest the Liberals remain well-positioned to come out on top. Although the gap between the Liberals and Conservatives has narrowed compared to earlier in the campaign, the Liberals are entering election day with a stronger lead than they had at the same point in the last two elections.
Their advantage is largely built on steady support in key battlegrounds, including Ontario, Quebec, British Columbia, and Atlantic Canada — regions critical to securing a majority. The Conservatives, while competitive nationally, continue to trail in the polling averages across these crucial provinces, making their path to victory much steeper.
Meanwhile, the Bloc Québécois and New Democratic Party are facing difficult prospects. Both parties are on track for notable seat losses, with the Bloc seeing limited gains following the French-language debate and the NDP struggling to regain momentum in the final stretch.
While the race remains closer than it was at the campaign’s outset, the Liberals’ strong regional positioning makes them the clear favourites to win the most seats — and possibly form another majority government.
Source: https://www.thewrit.ca/
Liberals Leading in Tightening Race, Still Hold Seat Advantage
April 25: Despite a narrowing margin between Canada’s two main federal parties, the Liberal Party continues to lead nationally and is poised to win the most seats in the upcoming election, thanks to its enduring strength in key regions.
Polls show a tightening race between the Liberals and Conservatives, with recent trends suggesting a shift in momentum. However, the Liberals maintain a broader lead than they had at this point in the last two federal elections. Their edge in populous provinces—Ontario, Quebec, British Columbia, and the Atlantic region—gives them a significant seat advantage under Canada’s first-past-the-post electoral system.
The Conservatives remain competitive nationally but continue to lag in the polling averages across the key battlegrounds. Without gains in central and eastern Canada, their path to forming government remains steep.
Meanwhile, support for the Bloc Québécois and the New Democratic Party appears to be slipping, with both parties projected to lose a significant number of seats. Analysts suggest that strategic voting and regional dynamics are playing against both smaller parties as the race becomes increasingly polarized between the two frontrunners.
With the election campaign entering its critical final phase, the outcome remains uncertain—but for now, the Liberals appear on track to hold their ground where it counts the most.
Liberals Maintain Seat Advantage Despite Tightening Race
April 24: As the federal election race continues to narrow, the Liberal Party remains in the lead, holding a stronger position than it did heading into the previous two elections. While the gap between the Liberals and Conservatives is tightening, the Liberals are still favoured to win the most seats on election day.
The party’s sustained strength in key battleground provinces—Ontario, Quebec, British Columbia, and Atlantic Canada—continues to give them a crucial edge. Polling averages suggest the Conservatives remain behind in these regions, despite some gains in national support.
Meanwhile, the Bloc Québécois and New Democratic Party appear poised for notable setbacks. Both parties are projected to lose a significant number of seats based on current polling trends, further reinforcing the two-party dynamic between the Liberals and Conservatives in the final stretch of the campaign.
With the election drawing closer, the evolving numbers signal a competitive contest—but for now, the Liberals remain in the strongest position to form government.
Source: https://www.thewrit.ca/
Liberal Lead Shrinks, But Conservatives Hold Steady
April 23: The Liberals’ lead in national polls has narrowed to 4.4 points, with support at 42.7%. But this shift appears to reflect softening Liberal numbers rather than gains by the Conservatives, who remain steady at 38.3%. The NDP holds at 8.4%, and the Bloc sits at 25.7% in Quebec.
Recent polls from Mainstreet, Nanos, Pallas, Abacus, and Léger show little change. Liberal support ranges from 40–44%, Conservatives from 37–41%, and the NDP between 6–11%. These figures have remained consistent heading into the campaign’s final days.
Deeper polling shows the Conservatives are virtually unmoved since mid-April. Regionally, the Liberals lead in Ontario and B.C.—key battlegrounds the Conservatives must win to have a chance.
Despite chatter, the NDP shows no signs of a late surge, especially in B.C. Today’s Nanos poll even shows their national support down to 7.7%. The Bloc has made slight gains in Quebec but isn’t yet a serious threat to Liberal dominance.
Meanwhile, advance voting turnout hit 7.3 million—up 25% from 2021. Whether that translates to higher overall turnout remains uncertain.
Source: https://www.thewrit.ca/
Liberal Lead Holds as Race Tightens Nationwide
April 22: A wave of new polling data shows the race tightening between the Liberals and Conservatives across the country — but the Liberals continue to lead. Despite national gains, the Conservatives have yet to make meaningful inroads in vote-rich Ontario and British Columbia, two provinces critical to winning a federal election. That leaves the Liberals well-positioned to secure the most seats, with a majority government still within reach. Meanwhile, the NDP remains stalled in third, and the Bloc Québécois has seen a modest bump in Quebec following the French-language leaders’ debate.
Key Battleground Ridings
Several ridings are expected to be pivotal in determining the election outcome:
Burnaby Central, BC: NDP leader Jagmeet Singh is striving to maintain support.
Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill, ON: A critical region where Conservatives aim to capitalize on voter dissatisfaction.
Trois-Rivières, QC: A fiercely contested area highlighting the Bloc’s fluctuating influence.
Edmonton Southeast, AB: Liberals hope to regain ground with ex-cabinet minister Amarjeet Sohi.
Cumberland-Colchester, NS: A volatile riding with a history of swinging between parties.
Burlington, ON: A bellwether riding that has consistently voted for the winning party since 1984.
